the subject title is a simple one, but here's what I want to know: when is it time to walk away?

My story: I'm a BJ player through and through. I've had heaters just like anyone else, Sadly, they rarely seem to last very long and thus don't create the worry of "when do you walk away". Its clear the heater is over, its time to go or more frequently, it's time to grind back the losses just sustained in the hopes some positive variance will come your way.

Yesterday, at Harrah's Lake Tahoe (my winter hang out of choice), I played my usual 1D BJ. One thing I did differently was to walk in with the strategy of going big early, and then backing down as needed. I'm comfortable with $50 action and will press up as warranted, typically walking away with a $100 HA.
Back to the story...I sat, changed $500 and played $100 right away and started winning. Good start I thought, and backed down to $50. The good cards continued to come my way, so I upped my bets and walked away +$2k after about an hour and a half of play. I was honestly a little out of sorts as I wanted to cheer on my good fortune, but the others guys at the table were just getting hammered...I was the only one getting any cards. Time to get some lunch and ponder my next move.

Typically, I have stop limits on either wins or losses. My win limit is often 2x buy-in, so yesterday was already an aberration by the time my lunch break come. Having a 4x win in a short time frame told me that I should be thankful, book the win and hang out for the next couple hours. So, back to the floor I went seeking out my former table with the plan of slow-playing the afternoon and not whittling away my wins. That table was full, and with not much else available (that was desirable), I headed for the HL thinking I would give it a whirl at $100 since I had been playing mostly that in the first session. I typically don't sit $100 tables because I like the flexibility to retreat my bets to my comfort zone, so this was an unusual play for me. In the HL, the 1D table was occupied, so I sat the 2D with a familiar dealer, changed the $2k into black chips and began with the mind set that I would min bet and stop my loss at $1k if needed. It was not. The good cards continued to come my way, and even through a couple swings on the table I raised up my winnings to $3k in another hour's time. It was time to color up again and consider my position.

At this point, I was candidly unsure of what to do. I was clearly on a sustained heater and it was lasting longer than I was used to. I was also being more aggressive than usual with my bets, not recklessly, but pressing them to $200 with the occasional $400. Again, for a $50 better, these are outside the norm.
My gut said walk, book the win. But i remembered the line "never walk on a heater" and it was clear that things were going my way that day.

I sat for a third session, this time back on the floor at my preferred 1D table and played. The cards were mixed, and I was spinning my wheels a bit. So, I announced that I would be leaving shortly (my wife was done skiing) and started throwing out some larger than usual bets...$250, $400, $500 to test the heater. Won some, lost some. Nothing consistent. I did one more purple chip bet, lost and colored up at $2k....gave $1k winnings back to the house.

i'm pleased to have walked with a larger than normal win, but am still perplexed by the question of "how do you know when it time time to leave a heater"?

 

"how do you know when it time time to leave a heater"?
To quote Edward G. Robinson as Lancey Howard in "the Cincinnati Kid"..."that kind of gets down to what it's all about now doesn't it kid.."

 

When you are happy with your win, walk.

Happy with your win is a different definition for anyone, but 4x buy in is pretty sweet. The deck doesn't know you are on a heater.

Put it another way, compare how you would feel if it was 4k instead of 2k to how you would feel if you gave it all back. Is the added joy of one worth the pain of the other?

 

...you HAVE to finish the quote:
"...making the wrong move at the right time."


The way I do it (recognize the end of a "heater") is to constantly re-set my lower limit in a session.
For example, if I buy-in for $200, my loss-limit might be to $80. If I work it up to $300, the loss limit will rise to $200, and so on.

 

thanks, will employ that going forward. I think I was doing that on Saturday which is why I locked down the $2k and played strong with the extra until it ran out. Maybe a little too strong with the benefit of hindsight, but felt a little giddy by that point.

 

That really was an incredibly foolish thing for Lancey to bet on... 5-stud, he had 4 to a straight-flush and he raises the Kid, who already had two pair with his first 4 cards.
He had to know that Kid wouldn't fold, and that the odds of him pulling a flush or straight with that one card were not particularly good.
Since the Kid pulled a full-house, the SF was the only hand where Lancey wins...so, it HAD to be the Jack of diamonds...1/48 odds.
Sorry, but in real life, Lancey would have folded after the 3rd card dealt & the bet that followed.

Still...a great poker film! McQueen, Robinson, Karl Malden, Rip Torn, Ann Margret & Tuesday Weld....perfectly cast.

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Let's start with them playing 5 stud. That could have gone on for weeks. No wonder the Man finally played a wild ass hunch. He was near being "Eddie the Dude" as per Ladyfinger's comment regarding "as ready as I'll ever be" before he slumped over.
That was when they couldn't show real money remember? The bills were oversized.
Loved "I don't need to cheat to beat you friend,,"
I am a huge Steve McQueen fan. I used to see him at Bud Ekins' Triumph motorcycle shop covered with grease working on his bike. Real man.

 

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My answer is you absolutely don't know when exactly to walk away. You may win that next hand and you may lose it. It's a guess at best. You can DECIDE when to walk away, be it by certain win or loss amount, but you can't KNOW. If we had a way of doing that none of us would go on tilt and all leave the table with money. When I start calculating what I have left and thinking too much about IF I should play more, that's when I should cash out and walk. It may be the right decision and it may be the wrong decision, but it's always made.