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When Will The Casino Back You Off?

Discussion in 'General Vegas Talk' started by Packer, Apr 14, 2016.

  1. Packer

    Packer
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    Question and I hope this happens. Let's say you get the once in a lifetime roll. I don't know what your particular deal with mgm is but let's say they allow you to bet 100k max a hand at bacc. You are now on your 5th winning banker shoe in a row, each one you won 1m, of you ask them to raise you up to 500k will they? Now you are at your 10th winning shoe and up say 15m, at what point will they back you off? 20m? 50m? Lord I hope this happens to someone I know and why not you but those numbers are P&L changing for mgm, what do some of you think? At what point does mgm give up?
     
  2. shifter

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    This is why they have limits. To limit their potential exposure. Your limit is based on your at risk money before the trip. It will never go up based on winning.

    The most I've won in a single shoe is 300. Obviously you could win every hand but that's never going to happen. The best shoe I've ever seen in my life I could win 750 the way I bet these days. But it's never going to happen like that shoe after shoe after shoe.

    What you really need if you want to crush them is some friends acting as shill players. If you have 2 friends, you give them some money before the session and when you hit a long streak they start betting. They have to be smart and act like it's their money while you're playing, but then you can settle up later. If I had 2 friends plus my limit and hit a big streak I could hit them for 1M easy.

    And no they're not going to back you off for hitting them for 1m or 2m. And limits are setup so you really can't do much more than that without risking a lot more.
     
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  3. rycelover

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    Is there an advantage play in bacc? Other than Ivey and his edge sorting that was in the news a couple of years ago?
     
  4. Packer

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    Understood. But what if you make a deal that you are bringing 10m and will play to that? Let's pretend you are now up 10m, will they stop you from playing? At what point will they stop you from winning? 15m? 25m? You might not have an answer but you will have an educated guess? I know there are players who play to those amounts.
     
  5. VEGASBJ

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    I don't think they ever stop you from playing. The longer you play, the more chance they have to get it back
     
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  6. shifter

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    yes, there are.

    and most of them are down so much lifetime that although they're not happy when they win 30M one trip, they know they'll get it back.

    if you just wire in 10M one time, sure they'll let you bet 400k a hand.

    but like what happened to Nate, if you don't consistently lose the line, they're going to drop the limits.

    he had a 175k max bet at MGM due to his CL/FM, but after a few trips in a row when he only lost 500 and stopped playing, they dropped his limits to 40k, which is the 500k level.

    they don't want the exposure if they know they don't really have a chance to win all that money.
     
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  7. shifter

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    no. no counting will help.

    the only thing that will help is if you can know something about the cards coming out before they come out.
     
  8. stackinchips

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    Well I'm not sure this answers your question, but in the book Double or Nothing about Tom Breitling and Tim Poster when they owned the Nugget, they talked about a guy who was on a complete tear on the craps tables over the course of a couple weeks and had collectively taken the casinos for something like $20M, a good portion of which was from the Nugget. They kept allowing him back over and over, and he kept cleaning them out for a couple million at a time. They knew that eventually his luck would run out and he would dump it all back. They didn't want him to dump it somewhere else. Anyways it went on for a few weeks and eventually they had to turn him away because it got to a point where it was jeopardizing their entire operation.

    Apparently within a couple of months after that the guy had dumped it all back around town. Pretty interesting. Sorry it doesn't help with your question, but it was an interesting example of a time that the variance was simply too much for the house.
     
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  9. wigwam_timeshares

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    I'm guessing that playing at that level they know it's going to be pretty good odds that you can also give it all back just as quickly?
     
  10. VEGASBJ

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    Yeah, most of the big players are playing their max bet all the time, so it is easier to lose it back quickly on a bad streak. The big players get pissed if they hit a hot streak and were not betting their max bet as they consider that "lost" money.
     

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