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The WORST bad beat --- ever.

Discussion in 'Poker, Race & Sportsbook' started by Tellafriend, Feb 25, 2016.

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  1. geoff

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    Professional nerd, amateur provocateur
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    The big orange one is 100k.. The pinkish one I'm not sure 25k ?
     
  2. shifter

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    Yes pink is 25k.
     
  3. dutchvelvet

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    From a poker players perspective:

    What I see here is a low pair of 5s in early position. Probably tried either to limp in or a two bet pre flop. Button called with JQ suited connectors, probably others in the action pre flop as well. Before the flop, it's essentially a coin flip, with the low pair favored by a hair against the suited overs.

    Flop came with a pair of trip fives and a made flush. There was some pretty substantial betting on the flop, likely either a bet and called raise, or a called check raise. After that action the trip 5 probably believed at that point that he was going against either a made flush or a strong draw.

    The 8 hit on the turn which only could have helped a straight draw. At that point, the trip fives would have been looking at it like he needs to improve to win the hand. He has 10 outs (the remaining 5, the three remaining 6s, the three remaining 10s, and the three remaining 8s). The quick way to estimate it is by multiplying your outs by two on the turn, so the table estimate is 20%. The correct number is actually 21.73% from what trip fives knew (10 outs/ 46 cards unseen).

    So trip 5s bets into the eight, and the flush pushes the rest of the chips in. There would have been some chance that the flush player is bluffing or still on a draw depending on who it was or their playstyle. But mostly at this kinda stakes you're going against a made hand in that situation. So maybe add only 5 % for the chance bluffing or the trip fives are good against a high pocket pair that limped in pre flop. At this point, the trip fives says I'll call if we run it three times. That's a great bet for the flush, as he's favored so he agrees.

    In any case, the three river cards are all outs for the trip fives, so he scoops. Odds of that are just about 1%. In the hand, i think the player with the flush played correctly. The player with the fives overplayed them and got bailed out by lady luck. With only a one in five chance of winning the hand, you don't want to throw down a six figure call.

    This kinda stuff is why you don't wanna play low pocket pairs in early position. If he would have been in later position, the sequence of events would have likely been, flush bet, trips raise, flush re raise and at that point the trips could have taken a tactical fold.

    EDIT: Clarified I was only talking about low pocket pairs.
     
    #13 Feb 26, 2016
    Last edited: Feb 26, 2016
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  4. gmille58

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    Ahhhh, didn't notice the 100k chip.
     
  5. BoostedRS

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    Mine is from a Texas Hold Em perspective. May not be my worse as far as money lost but potential loss probably way up there.

    I was in a WSOP Circuit event in Cincy a few years ago and was top 5 in chips with a field of about 1000 starters in a $565 buy-in. I made it through dinner break and there were about 60 people left. First hand after dinner I'm in the big blind and look down at AA. It folds all the way around to cutoff and he shoves... He is one of the 4 people ahead of me in chips. Take in mind we both have like 80x or more big blinds at this time. I Insta-call praying for him not to shit on me. He looks stunned as he throws over QQ and says he wanted to steal the Antes and blinds. As the dealer is about to flip you can see the first card in his palm... Fuckin' Queen. You gotta be shitting me! That's all she wrote. I got knocked out after that.
     
  6. dutchvelvet

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    My worst bad beat percentage wise was on the flop. I had KK and the board was KTT for Kings full of Tens. Pot was decent sized from two players calling a 3 bet. I check the flop, and a Guy (an idiot) bets roughly equal to the pot. I raise all in and he calls.

    Cards flip. Turns out the numbskull had 88. Turn comes up 8. River comes up 8. The only way I could lose that hand was running 4OAK and he got it.

    Chances of that are .15%.
     
  7. shifter

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    I had a brutal beat like that in a cash game. not quite as low a percentage, but awful.

    flop was AJ8 I had pocket jacks. we get it all in and he has AK. A on turn, K on river.
     
  8. Dreamsh!t

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    my worst.
    super bowl no limit tourney sitting in 2nd place with 5 guys remaining. 2 other guys are short stacked i get 77 out of position. limp in. the small stacks fold. button(chip leader) checks. flop comes 227. full boat. chip leader makes a bet and i shoved. he quickly calls with a 87. i am tickled to cripple this donkey who was getting all the cards. Then doomsday hits, runner runner 8`s . his full boat beats mine. i am out. He then has 80% of the chips but manages only 2nd place.
    so close to a tourney win, but nope.
     
  9. Malibugolfer

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    Immediately to mind were the aces over boat loss to the SF and 3 hands later the SF loss to a higher SF back in my younger 7 stud days.
    Absolutely wiped out a long accumulated BR.
    Then 18 straight hands of blackjack ( I moved tables to no avail) at Mandalay right after it opened.
     
  10. davis646

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    It's always been a goal to play the WSOP Main Event. A few years ago I was in a 3 stage tournament where the winner got a $10K seat, flights, hotel, etc.

    I won the 1st stage, won the 2nd, and advanced to heads up of the final stage. He has about 80% of the chips and I battle back to where we are almost even when this happens...

    I bet, he raises, and I re-raise shove with KK. He calls and turns up two jacks. As the dealer burns the first card he accidentally flips it over to reveal a jack. Doesn't affect the action, or results, and remains the burn card. Nothing scary on the flop or turn and I'm getting ready to achieve a lifelong goal. River is a jack.
     
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