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My gambling views

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by tom4u, Jul 12, 2016.

  1. tom4u

    tom4u
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    I tried to answer Bronco’s quick short question. But I kept typing away and now it’s to long. So made my own thread as to not clutter up other people’s thread.

    But first, thoughts on the recent bickering that appears to have settled down already. I’m always late to the dance, haha

    On this forum, initially it was friendly acquaintances posting to one another, a small group. Then as this forum grew, more people arrived with differing personalities in how they post. Inevitable misunderstandings occur since it’s hard to interpret meaning and someone’s intention.

    Reactions will occur. A reflection of each person’s unique personality.

    Intelligence can be so arbitrary in these types of things. Supposed adults bickering over views. How interactions and treatment to one another unfolds.

    There are a lot of behavioral similarities when you watch kids interact on a playground to how adults interact in groups. The same dynamics occur.

    But in the adult group, individuals feel like they know what they are doing and saying. Do you really? Or is it just an illusion in your mind.

    There’s a saying in poker. Most players think they are better than what they are. That’s why poker is profitable for the better players. Everybody sits down and thinks they can win or get lucky. And Yes, anybody on any given day can win! It’s so beautiful. However, over time, the money flows up to the better players. They just need time with the weaker players and a decent sample size.

    Patience. Acceptance. Skill. = profit.

    Some people just like to purposely get a rise out of others. It’s their form of entertainment. If you see it, sense it, feel it… just display your patience and temper your reaction. This creates a less “fun” result for their actions; slowly they will be less motivated to do more. Although some have a more determined mind so time will be required for that to settle down.
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    I love gambling

    I view it as a philosophical reflection of one’s self.

    An indicator of how much self-awareness exists along with a constant evolving battle with how much control you have of yourself.

    The desire to tempt randomness, luck, and embracing the results.

    Gambling requires we put something of value at risk, relative. Within this risk, each person has a different range of risk in a given session.

    There are many ways and styles in gambling. Which coincides with the various personalities of people out there. It truly fascinates me to gamble next to other people. Getting front row seats to learn about them without even saying a word to them (kind of creepy though lol)


    It’s very easy to present ourselves to others with words and control how they perceive us.


    With gambling, and other life things… we can see a person’s personality without their words. It’s so easy to be “nice” when things are going well. It’s much harder to hide your negative characteristics when things are going bad. And people’s threshold of willingness to accept that also gets put on display.


    ----------------------------------------------------------------------

    To answer Bronco,


    My regular play, I bring 30k to the casino. My baseline bet is 1k. So I have 30 flat betting units. I also breakdown my session roll into 3 phases of style of play. If I go through all three phases and bust, I leave.

    For baccarat, I start with 1k bets. Whether I’m up or down, I’ll adjust betting units. For example, During Phase 1- if I’m down 5k (5units). My next bet will most likely be 2-3k (2-3units), hope to win, and make a dent in my recovery attempts. I RARELY ever go for the one shot to get even because that play is such a high variance play and it’s not worth it. If I lose that bet, I’m now down 8 units, I would try another 2k bet. If I win, I stay at 2 units and see how it goes. If I lose that bet, I’m now down 10 units and this next thing is what is important for me.

    Phase 2- I switch my emotions and mentality from “wanting to book a win” to “minimize damage” type of session. Because the mentality is completely different, it helps me stay balanced (not monkey tilt) and I continue to enjoy the game and betting. I actually revert back to 1k bets again and just try to win something. If shoe is good, I’m super happy at getting even and leave. It wasn’t meant to be that session. Casino will always be there, I’m in no rush to MUST win today.

    Phase 3- If I get down 20k (20units) then I’m in the third phase of my session bankroll, the desperate go wild (methodically) have fun phase of play. Again, I bet 1k, win or lose, I bet 2k, then 4k. Winning 3 hands in a row at baccarat is reeeally difficult so I appreciate the gambling god’s smile upon me. I then go back to 1k and try to ladder up again. If I don’t succeed, at this point I have used up various emotions and it’s time to leave.

    If start out winning, I am more aggressive and increase betting units of my current profits. If I’m up 10k for example, I’ll switch to 3k flat bets until I lose the 10k then revert back to 1k. So in that example, I basically give myself 3 attempts to try to win more. As you know, in Bac, it can go back and forth awhile before you go upswing or drop it. So you can get a lot of bets in.


    My goal is to grind out wins. Lots and lots of small to medium wins add up and protects me from self harm. I have minimum units goals for a session but never a max. Worst that can happen is I lose 30 betting units in a given session. Which is fine since I know I can recover in next 4-5 sessions, hopefully. I never try to recover the full amount in a session because that just sets up the wrong chasing mentality.

    A lot of times, you can feel how hard or easy it was to win some bets. If I feel like it was a struggle, then I embrace the small win and leave. If I feel it’s a smooth upswing, I’ll keep going until I hit a hurdle then book my win. Being sensitive to that process has helped me a lot over the years.

    Baccarat has a lot of win/lose back and forth. Eventually if you track your attempts, it’ll be extremely close to 50/50 after a decent sample. So when I bring 30 units to gamble, my betting range is between 1-4 units per bet, which is a lot of room to work with. I never stay at peak unit bets unless it’s the session’s profit I’m using. Essentially my average bets are higher when playing on session’s profits, and lower when playing on my session’s roll. Overall it helps me stay loose and enjoy the game and lowers variance of my session’s bankroll.


    The reality of baccarat—players will probably lose (especially the emotional ones). Your guesses/bets will be close to even, 50% right, 50% wrong (though some days you will guess 7 right in a row and think you are the greatest! Other days, you lose 7 in a row and think casinos are out to get you, lol) . For a chance to win, you need to win on your big bets when they come. Or better put… be lucky.


    I change the value of my units base on previous sessions. So my initial 1k unit measure can be 2k/unit (need 60k for session roll) up to my max threshold which is 10k/unit (bring 300k) (as an aside, I don't understand why vegas is more strict with max bets at bac than my local casinos, which allows 100k max bet on a private table. 50k max bet on normal table regardless of other factors). My betting pattern is the same in terms of units. That was the hardest part, seeing the bets as just betting 1-4 units at a time instead of actual money.


    Amongst my gambling friends, we always refer to how many units we are up or down. Never the money amount. Because everybody is different, and we can all relate to how many units within a conversation amongst each other. It truly lessens the differences between friends and varying socio economic statuses. And it doesn’t belittle someone’s win amount. If my friend won 5 units (+$500) and I won 5 units (+$5k), we’re both happy and if someone asks us, we have the same answer. The actual amount is irrelevant. It’s all about the win!


    It’s a slippery slope when we choose to gamble. I’ve seen to many acquaintances suffer the darkside of gambling and ruin their once happy life. Staying disciplined is absolutely my priority over anything else.


    Bankroll should be a lump sum that is reserved strictly for gambling. Not be connected to lifestyle expenses, if it is, then please separate it now.

    Then break it down to separate categories, trip bankroll, and session bankroll. That way, any session loss or downswing won’t affect a person’s lifestyle and that “feeling” of having to win back a loss right away is lessened. And we ALL experience that feeling sooner or later.


    Each game is different though. For blackjack, my top bet is the unit count I go by. And I bet as small as I can until the count is in my zone then I escalate bets. Hopefully reaching my max bet. In that regard, I bring 30k with my top bet being 1k (30units) but start out betting table minimum since I’m focused on advantage play.

    For sports betting, you’re more likely in a flat betting style and much easier to track your units that way. You should rarely be betting 5 units on a game unless you have some advantage play information that the market doesn’t have. Otherwise you just shrunk your betting bankroll threshold on a desperate gambling play.


    For poker, whatever the buyin is, I use that as my unit count. For me personally, I feel comfortable having at least 100 buyins for any given game I play (books recommend 20-50 range). If I am playing the 10/20nl at Bellagio, I’ll buy in for 5k usually. Which means I need minimum 10 buy ins with me on a short trip.


    Bronco- Base on what I’ve read about your trips, I think your betting style in blackjack is probably very aggressive. And you bet according to feel and observation of the deck’s count. Which means you will have unexpected swings a lot of the times. Losing more than expected in a given session or winning more than expected. You’re essentially at the mercy of the deck if your bet sizing is somewhat random. This leaves a lot of room for your emotions to take over… which is highly dangerous to your overall gambling bankroll. Your swings must be insane.


    If you pre-plan your betting increments depending on what stage of the session you are in (winning, losing, even, time limit, approximate deck count, etc.) then no result will ever be a surprise and this would increase your level of self-control over time. Being able to quit when not feeling it or taking a loss is what will save us from sheer self-destruction.


    Biggest issue with blackjack is how big of a betting spread you are doing and if it coincides with a running count then you will definitely get heat and backed off. I think you said you don’t count before; unfortunately it doesn’t take much for the casinos to look at you funny.
    -----------------------------------------------------------

    Problem with gambling is, if you are down a significant amount of money, and it has affected your ability to “freely” bet…. anxiety, stress, worries, fear rise up like a gigantic wave and you second-guess every decision on when/how much to bet. At that point, you’re drawing dead and need to stop gambling for a decent amount of time.



    Tl;dr --


    Don’t gamble. If you do, create an enjoyable experience for yourself. Discipline. KNOW and UNDERSTAND why you do everything that you are doing while gambling. Otherwise, you’re doomed to lose.


    For Bac, If you’re not at a table and I ask a hypothetical question, you’re down $100. What’s your next bet?, you should always know the answer without thinking. If you say, “I don’t know, depends on how I feel” --- you’re going to be in big trouble gambling. If emotions determine your betting ranges, please don’t gamble. Just take the money and donate it to a worthwhile charity.
     
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  2. natedog666

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    The gambling and betting strategy part is the kind of post that I really enjoy. I think that most long term gamblers have some kind of strategy they like to play with , but would like to also try out other strategies once in a while.

    For instance I tried PT's iron cross thing and will never do that again....lol.

    I will try out this unit betting strategy with my own variation some time; seems well thought out and a good money management strategy that can provide some discipline.
     
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  3. captain mariner

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    This is what i would call great informative reading and worth saving to read everytime one embarks on there gambling adventure but my only complaint why cant i write like this.
    I almost use a somewhat similiar plan and its also alot easier less games you participate in and of course hold off drinking until your gambling is done,so great write and this is a great contribution.
     
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  4. newmans

    newmans
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    Great post! You are a much more disciplined gambler than most. Hats off to you!
     
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  5. tom4u

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    For you, maybe something similar to this…

    Lets say 2 million-ish as baccarat roll (amount you are ok with if lost within a year).

    This gives you a solid 100 units to work from = 20k/unit. Your 1 unit has to be an amount you are happy with if you win +3 units or more. If you’re not happy with a 60k win, then your flat unit needs to be larger, and roll needs to be proportionate as well.

    If 20k is your one unit. Then you have 500k in front of you. That’s 25 units for this session to work with, doesn’t mean you have to use it all.

    According to everything I’ve read + math, flat betting is no worse or better than any other betting strategies.

    I like to set my minimum win goal at +3units or more. Which means I’m ok with ending a session anywhere around that. Psychologically, when a goal is a “realistic” level that can be reached, it helps the mentality and focus of your play.

    A lot of my wins are attained when I reach +6 units, and then use the next 3 units (splitting that into two 1.5unit bets) as leverage and go for big wins. If I fail, I’m happy to walk away winning 3 units. This produces a lot of consistency with bunch of small medium wins, some big wins, and CAPPED losses.

    If you lose like 5-7 initial consecutive bets. End the session, it's not meant to be. 5-7 units is recoverable in another session easily. So you can walk away feeling ok.
     
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  6. natedog666

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    That's actually very similar to my upcoming strategy for the next session, though I might have a solid stop loss at 25 units or 500k.
     
  7. tom4u

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    It would be fantastic for some nice banker runs. Good Luck!
     
  8. undathesea

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    This is a great thread. I usually walk up to a table with either game strategy or money management in mind... but rarely do I ever combine the two.
     
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  9. Broncofn

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    Awesome write up and thank you!
     
  10. lazytaper

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    Loved this post! I don't have the patience you do. I'm ok winning or losing fast. Fortunately I've been lucky but I play way outside of your guidelines. My units are way too high a percentage of my BR and I raise every bet after a loss and usually wins too. Haha. I will walk after 6 or so losses but I can live with the huge swings up and down. I think that energy is what I like most about gambling. I mentally prepare for losing everything before I get to Vegas so a Big win is especially exciting.
     
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