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MARCH MADNESS HOW GOOD ARE THE BOOKS?

Discussion in 'Poker, Race & Sportsbook' started by NCAAHoops, Feb 18, 2016.

  1. NCAAHoops

    NCAAHoops
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    First off thanks to Shifter for starting this GREAT site, which allows us to share info and keep on top of what is going on in the Sin City side of the world with no issues or worries.



    Now, I understand there are a number of members going out for March Madness so the question is: How good do you think the books are during March Madness and how do you plan on selecting your teams / bets?



    Some may be saying, “Dude you are little early for this, no”? Well actually I think I’m on time. This is due to my idea in picking teams to ride into the trny on a high note and playing well. I like to look at the last 5 – 10 games at this time of year along with who is playing at the best to put 6 games together. As a gambler, I am really only looking for one or 2 games (as I will be in Vegas for the round of 64 and 32) to be put together since I am just looking to get to the window to collect. I will still be doing many bracket pools and hope to get my final 4 and champion correct but the first weekend is about vegas and winning against the spread and ML.



    We all know the books are good but how good? The great part of the 1st weekend of March Madness is you have teams who have not played each other too much over time. The books seem to go down the list based on seeding then make a small adjustment. For example seeds #8 vs #9 are -1 or -2 spread then seeds #6 vs #11 are -3 or -4 spread. This makes sense for the most part but now I will look for a team who I believe is seeded incorrectly. So in the example, if I believe the #6 seed is too high then I will take the points and pick the #11 in that match up. Also the books have become very tight with the ML in these games and they do not like to reward you for picking the upset. But there are times you can find it and if you do be sure to plow it on. Now let’s see if any teams grab my attention over the next few weeks.

    2 Years ago this concept treated me very well…….Last year not very well

    Good Luck to All and enjoy the games

    How do you select your teams?
     
  2. VEGASBJ

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    I usually pick by throwing darts or asking the dog to pick a team with one bark, or two barks. Seriously, these lines are so tight most of the time that the last second free throws, or letting the guy in for some inconsequential layup that doesn't seem to matter (but affects the final line) always sways the final spread. Other teams that you think should blow out the # 16 seed - don't for some reason. Some people think it is one of the easier sports to handicap, and maybe it is during the regular season, but come March Madness time, I think the books have the lines pretty accurate. I like your one trend though of picking the team that got seeded incorrectly. I did that some odd years ago when UCLA ended up being like an #11 or # 13 seed, when they really should have been a #5 or # 6. Due to some random events, they could not be plugged in any higher, and maybe most of the nation didn't realize this, but the local sports talk radio was all over it giving all the reasons why the low seeding was a benefit to the gamblers. Have to see the final brackets to see where the hidden plum may lie.
     
  3. RockyBalboa

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    I just was telling DaaaBears that I need to start studying the teams and paying attention, especially to the conference championships when they begun, to the teams.

    I used to pay more attention to college hoops before the one and done players became so popular. I've always loved the tourney though. Since HS I've been in bracket pools. A HS friend and I would enter his dad's pool at his work and one year we took it down. His pops was a banker and covered our entry fees. Walked away with $1000 each. This was the year when Tyus Edney had that coast to coast with UCLA.

    So since I'm planning on betting I need to have a clue. I'll dive into everything and on the plane ride out I'll finalize the leans and hit the V's book after I check in.

    And VBJ you're right - the lines are razor sharp. College football and regular season hoops have some that are loose and exploitable but in the tourney the books are on their game. For that reason if I'm struggling with a pick I'll default bet the dog and root for the points.

    Two things in sports betting that take years off your life;

    1. College football kickers
    2. College basketball players shooting free throws
     
  4. NCAAHoops

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    @VBJ I do agree with you about most of the lines vegas get them right but you only need a few. Now lets hope we get them and I can play it correct. You UCLA comments are spot on. Then there was VCU a few years ago that the media said they should not be in the trny and on to the final 4 they went. This year I say any one of about 15 teams may be able to win it. Carry that into the 1at 2 rounds and it will be Madness

    @Rocky...Good Point on the Free throws They are a major problem when using the spread.....I usually will read that info in USA today on the flight out.

    I will need to look at a number of mid major teams between now and March
     
  5. Jmahls

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    The books are ok but based on my expectations going in I was disappointed. I enjoyed a football weekend more than opening weekend. There are a ton of awful games and surprisingly much more dead time than you realize watching at home. I had my host reserve a spot in the sportsbooks so I had 4 seats at any time but even then we were always getting bumped and seats stolen when in line or running to restrooms. This year I'm going to play poker and go watch final couple minutes of games that interest me.

    As for my betting style for tourney:
    -junior/senior lead guard
    -someone who can get end of clock shots
    -ability to play a variety of styles most important being a grind game
    -fading teams who rely on 1 major big man, have to fight foul trouble
    -FT and 3pt shooting

    Teams that interest me, based on brackets obviously: Virginia(15-1 currently a gift for 1 seed), Miami Fl, Kentucky, Arizona, Michigan St....mid major too tough without knowing matchups
     
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  6. Stevie d

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    Hey VegasBJ, can you please post your Dog's picks when he's made them?
     
  7. VEGASBJ

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    Sure, right now she's tearing up the pages I laid in front of her. Guess she didn't like anyone tonight
     
  8. Brick

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    Agreed. This is gonna be a wide open field with some surprises. There is a lot of good but inconsistent teams in the top 50. I would not be surprised if a 4 or 5 seed wins it all.

    That being said, what the hell was Roy Williams doing last night against Duke? Call a timeout and draw up a play for christsakes.
     
  9. RockyBalboa

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    Good post and agree on the upper class lead guards. They can really take over late and provide some calm during hectic runs against them with their ball control.

    As much as I'd like to see a Philly team go deep I'm prepping myself for the Nova inevitable crushing second round loss
     
  10. Jmahls

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    Agree about Nova, not a local but always get teased by them. It's like March 15th happens and they turn into a pumpkin. Will be cheering for them, just not with my wallet.
     

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