It's true that it was MY money, not house money. But.....if I had not been up $28K at that point, I won't have gone for it twice. So there is a difference in the perception of the money, whether I am up or down.

 

that's not really true.

over the course of humanity, yes.

but one person's life, even if he plays every day, is not enough to reach infinity.

 

Even over a much shorter term than infinity, the outcome will be relatively close to the odds. I agree that if you play 100 rolls in your lifetime, than anything can happen. But if you are going to casinos several times per year, and playing hundreds or thousands of trials per trip, your results over the years will relatively quickly get closer and closer to the theoretical expectation.

There is a mathematical test that casinos use to detect if something is off with a player, game, or dealer, called the Chi-Square Goodness of Fit test. Basically you plug in the actual results and the expected frequencies, and it gives you a percentage chance of the actual results occurring. They apply it retroactively to player's club records in order to flag players for closer inspection next time they come, sometimes in cases where they suspect cheating/dealer collusion, where they suspect loaded dice/roulette wheel bias, and in many other instances because it can determine if there are problems with a relatively small number of trials. Anything below 5% and they consider it a problem. Anyway if you record your results each trip and apply this test to them, you'll quickly find the trend line of the percentage chance of having results similar to yours having a stark upward trend, toward 100%, unless you are extremely lucky/unlucky or you have been playing (in the case of craps) with loaded dice.

For more info on this btw, the Wizard of Odds

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on an online craps game that someone suspected of cheating them (again, it works with any random results of any game, live or online, as long as you know the expected frequencies). After just 328 bets, he was able to determine that the odds of experiencing results as bad as he did were 1 in 6,036,452,793,441 (1 in 6 trillion). So it works, and it doesn't take that many trials to get good results from it.

 

Please explain the bet on the Iron Cross for me please

 

Just Google the video on it might have to try that sometime

 

Yeah that's why I use 1000 come out rolls as my example, since that will realistically be what my iron cross action is over 20 trips....so anything can happen and minuscule differences in HA would not have a statistically significant effect on my results, whatever they may be....

 

My point to this whole thing was that a house edge of 5.6x the good bets is about as far from miniscule as you can get. Anyway, we won't agree on this, so enjoy and let us know how it works out.

 

This thread is getting me dizzy and I just played craps for the "first" time a couple weeks ago and know pass line with max odds lol

Its basically jibberish to me.

 

In a Nutshell, you are making a field bet that covers several numbers(2,3,4,9,10,11,12)
, and then also making place bets on the 5,6, and 8. You only lose if Big red is thrown, but win each roll if it is any other number. You can play this with the pass line number, but it is not necessary.


PT does not play the 5, which is a slight variant. He wins on all rolls that are not 5 or 7. My guess is he only plays the 5 if it is the pass line number.

If the point is 5, 6 or 8, then you only place the other 2 numbers. If the point is 4,9,10 most pass line players will bet less on their field bet.


The tricky part of this strategy is knowing when to take down your bets down, and of course elluding a quick 7 out after just laying the money on all the numbers.

You walk after a quick streak, or just pull down your bets, and wait for for a 7 out, then try it again.

You can leave it out for the duration of the roll but it usually takes 5 to 7 rolls to recoup your start up money, unless hitting box cars.

PS-please excuse my explanation as I am sure it is missing something.

 

Lol me too. Basically all I said was that the only craps bets people should play are the main ones (pass and don't) with full odds, because the rest are mathematical suicide. Then the entire board said I was wrong......not because my math is wrong but.....because Vegas. There's no arguing with such solid logic, so I stopped trying.

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