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Iron Cross Craps Strategy

Discussion in 'Table Games' started by Packer, May 3, 2016.

  1. Packer

    Packer
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    I have won more times than not with PT's come out roll iron cross (Not cash but wins) BUT it is really hit and miss. That fucken 7 seems to come out when I bet it big. The thing is you are betting so much to win a little. That is the problem. Well that and there are 10 ways for the 7 and 5 to show.
     
  2. thefish2010

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    No offense to PT, but I wouldn't be making these higher edge buy/place bets. The casino will take your iron cross and beat you to death with it :) . The only marginally playable bets on a craps table are the pass/don't (with full 3/4/5 or higher odds). With full odds on the don't at 3/4/5 odds, the edge is only 0.273% which puts it in line for one of the best bets on most casino floors. But if you start departing from these main bets, you get screwed very fast. Placing the 6/8 has a 1.52% house edge - 5.6X the edge of don't with full odds...and the edges rise dramatically from there (field bet is 2.78% on most high limit strip craps games).

    Over your lifetime, your casino losses will be roughly equal to your -EV. No need to senselessly increase that amount, when you can get plenty of excitement and variance from the lower edge bets.
     
    #2 May 3, 2016
    Last edited: May 3, 2016
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  3. PayTriple

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    I agree with your analysis of the HA, and you give sound advice here. If we were all to follow your advice, everyone would only play Don't Pass full odds and BJ with optimal rules.
     
    #3 May 4, 2016
    Last edited: May 4, 2016
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  4. jonnyvegas

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    It was a legendary night. You took a shot to put an exclamation on it with a big win. I like the gamble.
     
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  5. newmans

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    Personally, I love the hardways and hitting a parlay, parlay. I know the center bets are big HA......but who doesn't love hitting a parlay.
     
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  6. natedog666

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    Yeah I have to say I gamble for fun, so I love the hardways and the ATS. Also love roulette and some HL slots with high hold. It all comes down to the small sample size of a session anyways....

    Actually I wonder if somebody could run a simulation of 1000 rolls...I'm sure that's close to my 10 year come out rolls...what % will be the seven? It will likely be close to 1/6 but I'm sure some anomalies will happen with a small sample size like 1000 rolls....
     
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  7. Dreamsh!t

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    I often agree with the principles of HA, but not on wagers placed using house money.

    PT's wagers were at a zero house advantage as he was betting with house money. He could be champ, but had no risk of being a chump, since his BR was not at risk.

    Knowing how Nate works his numbers, I am assuming this would not be his "go to" play while on tilt or running bad.

    Have fun, let it ride!!!!
     
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  8. Packer

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    We should start this discussion on another thread. Sorry pt. But, I agree with you 100% thefish. You see we all go to Lost Wages to have fun and get out of reality for just a couple days. We also hopefully only take monies we can afford to lose. We will lose! Might be 1000 for some and 700k for others. It's all relative. So making that come out roll bet of 6k on the 6 & 8 and several more thousand on the field for PT is a rush like no other. Well, maybe one other. Lol
    It's for fun and the rush! You can use me as an example thefish. Many of you here know how I have had a winning streak the past 4+ years (it's now gone).. Three reasons, one, dont pass with 3 to 6 times odds only, as much as one hour sessions, discipline, focus, leaving while up and no other bets at all. Two, never playing any other games for real money. The last reason for the streak and probably the biggest is PURE LUCK. So keep playing that iron cross from time to time PT and I will be right there with you because there is nothing like winning that come out roll and giving high fives along with Habibi hugs! By the way dreamsh!t, it was pt's money he lost. It wasn't the casinos at all. It was in his pocket so it was his!
     
    #8 May 4, 2016
    Last edited: May 4, 2016
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  9. thefish2010

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    I know. I understand making bets simply because they make the trip more fun. I continue playing baccarat (dramatically worse than good bets on craps or blackjack mathematically), plus I Martingale on the player side (which is worse than the banker). Basically because I'm on a 5 year (now going on 6) year blackjack losing streak. Martingale with baccarat, for me, has made Vegas fun again because it took away the absolute certainty that I was going to lose every dollar I bought in for on every single trip, despite the higher house edge.

    But, on a game like craps, taking the don't with 6X odds is more than enough action for me, and the fact that it has the lowest edge makes it all the more fun. One of the reasons I play Martingale on baccarat is because it keeps my average bet dramatically lower than it would otherwise be on blackjack, and so even with the higher house edge I'm giving up less theo, plus since I play on baccarat machines I'm not doubling or tripling my theo losses due to dealer tips that I would be giving on blackjack or at a baccarat table. So at least some math logic went into that switch. You wouldn't find me trying to martingale at a roulette table or one of those big six wheels though. The edge is just too high. I have to balance the increased fun with my tolerance for mathematical insanity :) .

    Over 1K rolls anything can happen. That simply isn't enough to come anywhere close to the long term. You could win or lose enormous sums in that time, since craps is such a volatile game. There's a reason they normally keep millions of dollars in chips on those games.

    Odds are on the come out that you will hit a 7/11 8 times for every 3 craps though (and everything else will be a number, and those will hit with the exact frequency that they are supposed to), and that will never change. Over the course of your life, that is what the results will come out to. If they didn't, casinos (or at least craps tables) wouldn't exist. The odds are what they are and will never deviate over the long term.
     
    #9 May 4, 2016
    Last edited: May 4, 2016
  10. thefish2010

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    My favorite quote from a dealer when I started spouting off something similar to this: "Once we give it to you, it's yours". Personally, I haven't had "house money" (i.e. been up for life) since my first few trips to Vegas well over a decade ago. Ever since then every "win" has been nothing more than a decreasingly small percentage of the money that I have lost previously, given back to me for a short period of time until I inevitably lose it again (plus more). I think anyone that has been playing for a while, if they're being honest with themselves, will tell you the same thing.
     
    #10 May 4, 2016
    Last edited: May 5, 2016
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