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Have I been playing Basic Strategy wrong?

Discussion in 'Table Games' started by jmdlv1, May 15, 2016.

  1. jmdlv1

    jmdlv1
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    I'm primarily a craps player but usually put in several hours of BJ on every trip.
    Thought I was ok on Basic Strategy but recently ran across a YouTube video titled "The Five Most Misplayed Hands in Blackjack" with Henry Tamburin.

    Four of them are pretty clear but 16 vs.10 has me second guessing.
    If surrender is offered I would do that. Hit on a 16 vs.10 if not.
    He says however, you stand on a 3 card 16 vs.10 and that is where it looks like I have been making mistakes as I would always hit to a hard 17.
    Curious what the BJ players think.
     
  2. shifter

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    it's a very minimal difference, but, yes, it's the better play.

    I've never done it.
     
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  3. JDVegas

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    Yup, I stand on a 3 card 16 against a 10. I added that to my basic strategy a couple years ago.

    I am pretty sure you can find the details of the math on that play if you search Wizzard of Odds.
     
  4. PayTriple

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    Intuitively, it doesn't make sense.
    How can the next cards "know" whether you have a 16 from 2 cards or 3?
     
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  5. JDVegas

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    I can't find the details on the calculation right now, but here is the page that specifies this strategy (towards end of page):

    You must be a registered user with confirmed email address to view this content.
    Register or Login
     
  6. Hank

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    I assume (and all I am doing is assuming...I don't know the math at all) that the reason is, if you have a 3+ card 16, then you're holding at least 2 cards that can help you make a better hand. So, that's 2+ "good" cards you can't draw. And since the difference in EV between hitting and standing is so little in that situation, those 2 cards missing from the deck move the numbers enough to make it worth your while to change the correct play.

    But, as I said, I'm only guessing. Hopefully, someone else has a better explanation with some more robust mathematical analysis.

    OP: IMO, you have NOT been making the wrong basic strategy play. Basic strategy, by definition, is...basic. Compromises have to be made with respect to simplicity. Otherwise "basic strategy" would have to include very detailed card counting. And most of us who want to enjoy an adult beverage or 12 (and don't want to risk being ejected from our favorite haunts) aren't willing to put that much effort into our fun.
     
  7. Malibugolfer

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    The multi card 16 vs. 10 is a hand composition play.
    The difference in negative player odds for either the 2 card or multi card 16 vs dealer 10 is really infintessimal so if you did hit it in a 6d game, don't worry about it.
     
  8. Broncofn

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    Ive heard about staying on a 3 card 16 but I never do it, i always hit my 16's unless i have a feeling to surrender. I think no matter what, it can help or bust you either way.
     
  9. Broncofn

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    But arent you supposed to figure/think a 10 or picture card is in the hole?

    A 16 no matter how many cards drawn does not beat a 20 even though you still have a slight shot with the dealer having under 17.
     
  10. JDVegas

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    No matter how you slice it, the odds on a 16 vs a dealer 10 is right on the edge: hit, stand, surrender... the difference in expected outcome is measured in a few 100ths of a percent. Over your lifetime of playing, it might make a difference of a few hands won vs lost.

    @Hank has it correct in terms of the mathematical logic.
     

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