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Conditonal Probablity & Streak Calculation

Discussion in 'Table Games' started by GlenBaccarat79, Sep 12, 2016.

  1. GlenBaccarat79

    GlenBaccarat79
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    Most people are under the impression baccarat is a 50/50 game. In some ways it is and some ways it is not. Depending on the way you think, it can be a 100% game or as few as a couple percent, depending upon what you are looking for. In brief, it is a heads or tails, even 50% chance, coin flip. But if you really want to know a percentage, even a close percentage of something happening in baccarat, it can be realized. At least within a few points, say about 1 to 2 percent accurate on the highest numbers and close to a 1/4 or 1/3 on the real little numbers, say under 10%. Keep reading.

    The problem most don't or will not recognize is that there are 'killer sequences' which can easily be defined as: 'A flaw exists and always will'. I will explain what I just wrote. Say a mathematical streak calculator has a series of 80 events with a 50% loss probability (or win probability)using it as a 'happening' guide, and a 10 unit/event streak happening at the calculation of 3.5%. A killer sequence would mean in baccarat, 2 ten unit repeating streaks in one shoe. That would be a killer because most would be wagering for the cut and no more streaks, period, almost every single time.

    You can get the idea of Banker or Player but not side bets. Again, won't tell you the order, but you can get a pretty fair judgment of the total outcome within so many events (hands) of a streak happening or using the streak to mean repeating side.

    So running my numbers on a 'Streak Probability Calculator' for general mathematics, I came up with the following:

    80 Events (Hands)
    50% 'Happening' Possibility Odds
    Streak Proposed
    Streak Probability % Defined
    _______________________________________
    Events: 80, 1 Shoe
    Length of Streak: 1 Hand
    Chance of Occurrence: 100%

    Length of Streak: 2 Hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 100%

    Length of Streak: 3 Hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 100%

    Length of Streak: 4 Hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 97.6%

    Length of Streak: 5 Hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 74.6%

    Length of Streak: 6 Hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 46.8%

    Length of Streak: 7 Hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 26.1%

    Length of Streak: 8 Hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 13.7%

    Length of Streak: 9 Hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 6.9%

    Length of Streak: 10 Hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 3.5%

    Length of Streak: 11 Hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 1.7%

    _______________________
    Take 2 Shoes/160 Events:
    _______________________
    Length of Streak: 1 Hand
    Chance of Occurrence: 100%

    Length of Streak: 2 Hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 100%

    Length of Streak: 3 Hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 100%

    Length of Streak: 4 Hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 100%

    Length of Streak: 5 Hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 95.6%

    Length of Streak: 6 Hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 73.2%

    Length of Streak: 7 Hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 46.6%

    Length of Streak: 8 Hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 26.4

    Length of Streak: 9 Hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 14.0%

    Length of Streak: 10 Hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 7.2%

    Length of Streak: 11 Hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 3.6%
    __________________________

    Take 4 Shoes/320 Events:
    __________________________

    Length of Streak: 1 Hand
    Chance of Occurrence: 100%

    Length of Streak: 2 Hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 100%

    Length of Streak: 3 Hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 100%

    Length of Streak: 4 Hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 100%

    Length of Streak: 5 hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 100%

    Length of Streak: 6 hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 94.3%

    Length of Streak: 7 Hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 72.3%

    Length of Streak: 8 Hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 46.5%

    Length of Streak: 9 Hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 26.6%

    Length of Streak: 10 Hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 14.2%

    Length of Streak: 11 Hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 7.3%
    _________________________
    Take 5 Shoes/400 Events:
    _________________________

    Length of Streak: 1 Hand
    Chance of Occurrence: 100%

    Length of Streak: 2 Hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 100%

    Length of Streak: 3 Hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 100%

    Length of Streak: 4 Hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 100%

    Length of Streak: 5 Hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 100%

    Length of Streak: 6 Hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 100%

    Length of Streak: 7 Hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 79.9%

    Length of Streak: 8 Hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 54.4%

    Length of Streak: 9 Hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 32.2%

    Length of Streak: 10 Hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 17.5%

    Length of Streak: 11 Hands
    Chance of Occurrence: 9.1%

    Respect the chance of occurrence and don't expect/count of 'killer sequences' to repeat themselves, they usually will hurt you because you failed to recognize what is happening at any given time.

    Know the possibilities/probability of something happening you are looking for! It might just help you when you are playing shoe after shoe after shoe.

    Also remember, any calculation is not gospel or science, it is just that, a mathematical calculation. A very low number, like might happen 3.6% like a 11 unit streak and then followed by another 10 or 11 or even a 12 or 13 unit streak--might just happen really blowing the percentage clean out of the ball park as far as probability.
     
    #1 Sep 12, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 12, 2016
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  2. VEGASBJ

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    standard deviation and variance alone in that few hands will skew those # 's
     
  3. GlenBaccarat79

    GlenBaccarat79
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    1) Sure there is deviation and variance, absolutely 100%;

    2) Base knowledge is very good for the game you sit down at;

    3) Besides key aspects such as Money Management, Progressions and knowing when to stop whether loosing or winning are mandatory for giving yourself extra 'horsepower';

    4) The figures and the visual realization of what I posted in the running chart above is pretty real in many shoes. As I explain IMO below.

    5) There is no science or mathematical system that can ever following itself in gambling card games, no matter how great the odds.

    #4 Continued: In all my years of playing baccarat, I have seen only one shoe and one shoe only never having more than a double repeat. Never a 3'rd. Yes, very rare indeed. Ask dealers and floor people and see how many they have witnessed. Likewise, I have never ever seen one shoe of complete alternating chop. I have seen close to about 3/4 of one shoe with alternating hands, but never a whole shoe. Hell, I sat down last week at a local casino and the shoe was super strong. 6 Bankers and a tie and then another 4 or so squares over, exactly the same 6 more bankers and a tie. Then another couple of squares over 8 Players and a bit later another 9 players if not 10. The numbers as a 'chance of occurrence' is based on everything fresh and equal I am sure. However, say sitting down and playing 2 shoes with 160 events. Expecting a few Banker runs in excess of 10 repeating hands in one shoe is far fetched and probably won't happen and according to the calculation it would be about a 3.6% of happening for one streak in excess of 10. However, will 1's, 2's, 3's and 4's happen---sure they will. Nothing has to happen in baccarat in excess of 1 repeating chance of occurrence, meaning one hand Banker and one hand Player. That is 100% chance of occurrence. However, I highly doubt every single hand will be Banker and then Player and then Banker and then Player for 80 hands or 160 or 320 or 640, etc. I have seen regularly 10-18 hands alternating chop with 1 on each side. But, set aside everything, the percentage numbers I displayed in the above post represent a pretty close estimate of a certain event happening within a shoe or shoes. I don't know about you, but I would have to agree with the calculation that a one time 6 concurrent event will happen about 46.8% of the times in one shoe and possibly happen at least once in 5 shoes. Sure, absolutely you can have that same one time event of 6 happen 7 times in one shoe, thus the deviation blowing the 46.3% chance clean out of the water! But the figures are meant to represent telling you what the percentage of something happening, NOT how many times it will or will not happen in a shoe.

    The same as people talking about edge sorting and in baccarat you can get 9's or 8's for an entire shoe for the player dealt and never get a monkey with that on the second card following, etc. Then other shoes, every second card that follows an 8 or a 9 would prove to be a monkey.

    Back to my thoughts. So if I sit down and was into my 5th shoe and did not see a 9 streak event as of yet, I would know there was roughly a 32% chance of one happening before the end of the shoe. Is it going to, don't know. But I do know that there was just under a 7% chance of it happening in the first 80 hands I played. I do know myself, if I was sitting at a baccarat table and was into my 5th or 6th shoe, I am a hell of a lot more inclined to wager on the same side after the 4th or 5th repeating hand rather than switch my wager for the cut, if the previous 4 or so shoes had nothing but 3's and 4's and maybe one or two streaks of 5's, etc., etc.

    Personally, I rather base a wagering choice off of percentages rather than strictly gut, big or small road score board results, or other phenomenal 'events' that took place, etc.
     
    #3 Sep 13, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2016
  4. nickpapageorgio

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    50/50 is rare in a casino, and even when the odds are 50/50, the payout is less.

    The house advantage on video poker, craps, blackjack and baccarat are all +/- 1-2% of each other, so pick your poison. The bottom line is that they're all poison.
     
  5. GlenBaccarat79

    GlenBaccarat79
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    As a general rule without thinking a huge amount on it, almost anything any fun with the ability to press your buttons is probably poison as well?
     
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  6. Nevyn

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    That is a lot of calculation for information that there is zero way to exploit or act upon.

    And if anything, it risks being misunderstood and misapplied by someone to their detriment.
     
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  7. GlenBaccarat79

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    Most, the upper majority of bac players are dead-set on a streak, etc. Know what the percentage is, for getting the various repeating numbers in a series of events are. That is what I am saying, thanks.
     
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  8. Nevyn

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    And my point is that that knowledge is less useful than you suggest.

    For example, someone might read your post and think that since they are sitting for two shoes, a 6 time streak is the sweet spot, and keep pressing into the streak until it hits 6, and then abandon it. But that would be a misuse of your #'s, because even a high % chance that there will be a streak that long makes zero prediction as to whether the current streak will extend that long. And further, once you get to a streak of 6, the chances it extends to 7 are the same as they were that you would go from 5 to 6, the odds of the game.

    Streak betting is simple superstition. Knowing the overall odds of a streak of a certain length over a given # of iterations only helps you if you prop bet on the side. The odds of a streak of any given length of a 50/50 outcome are .5 to the power of the length of the streak. But given that you bet within the streak, the only truly important # to know is that whether the current streak is 1 or 15, the odds of the streak continuing for the next bet are still 50%.
     
  9. GlenBaccarat79

    GlenBaccarat79
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    You are so right, I am sorry. Back to relying on the casino supplied big road, small road and other 3 roads with my wife's Asian friend that is holding his piece of lucky jade because his decisions has to be right cause he was born in the year of the monkey and I believe that is what 2016 is!!!!
     
  10. GlenBaccarat79

    GlenBaccarat79
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    Better yet, lets just follow what so many do. Play for the 'cut'. Even when it is repeating we will play for the cut. Then when it cuts, I will follow them once again and wager for the cut back to the chop. LOL. Hell fire, after all, the other side always has to come out. I guess over the past 30 plus years I had a dumb ass outlook on all this!
     

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