Non-counting situation. I think it's probably way against the odds that the next card is going to be 5 or less. I always stick to what the book says, but have been burned more times than I can remember. Since I'm one of those people who craves 3rd base, it's especially painful to take the dealer's bust card.

What are your thoughts on this situation?

 

Man that's tough. I play it strictly by the book but i dread hitting a 4 card 16

 

There is a refinement to basic strategy that says you should stand on a 3+ card 16 vs dealer 10, but not against any other upcard. There is a slightly better (mathematically) refinement called the "Rule of 45" that says to stand on any 16 vs dealer 10 if your hand includes any 4 or 5, and hit all others regardless of the number of cards in your hand. Again, against any other upcard, you should play as normal.

However, in both of these situations you are increasing your odds for that specific hand by about 1%, and the situation will occur about every 1 in 28 hands. It's splitting hairs, and you will start costing yourself much more if you stand on 16 in any other situation where you should hit (example "if dealer has an ace up, thats even worse than a 10, so I should stay then too!"). So unless you can remember this very specific rule and have the discipline to only use it when a 10 is showing in the heat of battle with alcohol and adrenaline flowing, just always hit your 3+ card 16 vs 7 or higher.

I use the rule of 45 because I have the various basic strategies for each set of common numbers of decks and rules down cold, and was able to easily integrate it regardless of what's going on at the table. The vast majority of blackjack players have a hard enough time with perfect basic strategy, and they should stay away from deviations like this because mistakes using them will cost much more than they will save if you don't follow them exactly.

 

I play it by the book.
on a semi related topic, is there any place that pays a 5 card charlie?

only place i ever saw it was a home game and at a charity game

 

Thank you, food for thought.

 

I saw that back in the '70's in Vegas, but not in many years. Don't know about local casinos, but I would tend to doubt it.

 

Last few trips, I've been using that "45-rule".
I expand it to include any two 4s or 5s taken as hits prior to me. (I'm usually at 3rd base).
So, for example, if I have have a J-6, but the people ahead of me have taken hits that included 2 or more 4s or 5s, I stand.
Of course, I play double deck games, almost exclusively. If you remove two 4s and/or 5s, standing on hard-16 becomes the proper play against any dealer upcard...not just the 10.
If four of the 5s are gone from the deck, I stand on every subsequent hard-16...and I also (usually) increase my bets.
(The 5 is the only hit card that the dealer can make a hand out of any of his hard-12 through hard-16s. Removing half of them (5s) from the deck will noticeably increase the frequency of him busting with a 12 - 16 starting hand).

 

I like Topcard's approach. Good cover plays here, even for non-AP players. You are doing the right thing even though it's not "by the book." Any time you look like you are playing blackjack by instinct and not actually thinking, it's a good thing.