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Best Game To Play One Time Use Promos

Discussion in 'Table Games' started by thefish2010, Jul 2, 2016.

  1. thefish2010

    thefish2010
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    If you're a table player, you get a ton of one-time-use promos. I found
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    , and it was pretty interesting. I don't expect anyone to read the whole 21 pages, but just know it was written by a guy that is widely considered to be one of the most dangerous advantage players on earth, and he literally wrote the book on it ("
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    " - no, the $1,095 price tag isn't a mistake).

    Long story short, normally when you have one time use chips, you would think that they are worth no more than 50% of face value. But here's the most important paragraph in it:

    "We see the same phenomena when using "funny chips," by which I mean chips that are relinquished when a decision is generated, win or loss. Roulette is still the juggernaut, followed by various carnival games and bets. If payouts are restricted to even-money bets, then Three Card Poker emerges victorious, whether or not the chip is saved on a tie. For chips relinquished on ties, the strategy is to use $100 live on the Ante. Then, on any hand K87 or weaker, use the chip on the Play bet; on any hand K92 or stronger, we use cash on the Play bet, and keep the chip in our pocket for a subsequent hand. This produces an expectation of $51.43, a shock to those who thought that $50 was an upper bound on the value of this type of chip. If the chip is saved on ties, then Three Card Poker produces a whopping $73.15, compared to the sub-$50 values of using the chip in blackjack with even-money payoffs."

    So you learn something new every day. You can actually get $73.15 of value out of every $100 worth of these kind of chips by playing Three Card Poker if you are restricted to even money bets. You can actually get 95% of the value if you aren't restricted to even money bets by placing them straight up on any number on any roulette wheel.

    I wouldn't have thought that either Roulette or Three Card Poker would have been great games to play with any type of chip, but apparently, I was wrong :) .
     
    #1 Jul 2, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2016
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  2. shifter

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    keep in mind, though, EV and actual cash is a different story.

    assuming you only have a couple of chips, put them on a roulette number and sure your EV is 95%, but in most cases you will walk away with $0.

    same with 3 card where you could hit a bad streak and lose them all or at least a large portion of them.

    as opposed to the guaranteed ~50% you could get by playing both sides at Bacc.
     
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  3. thefish2010

    thefish2010
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    Agreed, but overall I get enough of them that I want to maximize their value. I'm OK with losing them more often than not to get the higher EV out of them. But you're right, many people just want whatever cash they can get out of them right then and there, and in that case they should play bacc or red/black on roulette.
     
  4. VEGASBJ

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    At the Wynn, they won't let you play both sides with promos.
     
  5. thefish2010

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    In that case if you wanted a high probability of cashing, I'm sure they'd let you play play 2 out of 3 columns on roulette. You'd have a ~66% chance of cashing. Or you could bet on one column, and then also on one or more even money bets like Red or black or 1st 18/2nd 18. As stated above, if you wanted maximum EV out of them instead of the high cashing probability, you'd just go straight up on a number.
     
    #5 Jul 2, 2016
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  6. Malibugolfer

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    Really interesting take on a commonly brought up subject.
    Given the author of the analysis I would have say the math is pretty accurate.
    Would get really even better with much higher value cheques.
    As for Grosjean, the guy can't even play in Max Rubin's AV player Blackjack Ball anymore, he's too good:
    "James Grosjean is considered by most of his peers in advantage gaming to be the greatest intellectual engineer and practitioner of advantage gaming to have ever lived. Max Rubin stated “In all the years I have thrown the Blackjack Ball when success is measured as function of skill, will and focus no one even comes close to Grosjean.” James is a graduate of
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    and attained a Masters’ Degree from the
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    ’s, School of Economics. James authored Beyond Counting Exhibit CAA. It is one of the most comprehensive books on advantage gaming ever published."
     
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  7. Broncofn

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    What i usually do with mine (muti use) is put it all on a hand of bj and hope for the best. On a little run, you can make some good money if it works out favorably.
     
  8. Malibugolfer

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    "What doesn't kill you makes you strong."
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    Bronco, given your good Karma and win % I am not surprised.
     
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  9. newmans

    newmans
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    He rubs his promos on his horseshoe.......then let's the chips fall where they may!
     
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  10. shifter

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    Wynn also doesn't have one time use promos...
     

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